The Pertemps Final will terrify some punters with 24 runners contesting a seemingly wide open handicap but new research suggests age is a factor and that half the field have less of a chance.
Cheltenham’s three-mile hurdle race will be run at a blistering speed at 2.05 and traditionally the race can throw up some big prices, like 14/1 shot Cape Tribulation last year. Indeed, horses with an starting price of 10/1 or bigger have won 12 of the last 15 renewals.
However, it is emerging from detailed analysis of the race that experience is a key factor in handling the hurly burly of the stamina sapping race
Horse racing stats specialists Proform have uncovered that horses aged 8 or older have won 9 from 15 runnings which significantly is 59% better than expected. The other side of the equation shows that conversely horses aged 7 or younger have won 6 of the 15 renewals but that is from a large total of 206 runners, which is 39% worse than expected.
Eleven of today’s field are seven or under which includes the likely favourite Sam Winner, the mount of inform Ruby Walsh.
Proform have produced a 50 page in-depth statistical guide for the Cheltenham Festival with each race covered in detail with relevant data.
Excelebration has “top form on all kinds of ground” as he prepares to do battle in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (6/4 fav with bet365) in America on Saturday week, according to trainer Aidan O’Brien.
O’Brien has been delighted with the way the four-year-old has been shaping up as he prepares to make the trip to America looking to come out on top at the Santa Anita course in California.
The hope is for Excelebration to continue his form following an impressive performance in last Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
On the racehorse, who barring his debut has won every race he has featured in that has not involved the unbeatable Frankel, O’Brien said: “He’s progressing very well and we were obviously delighted with him at Ascot. He has top form on all kinds of ground.
“I wouldn’t be sure if he’ll run again after America, it’s not really a decision for me.”
American hopeful and multiple Grade One winner Wise Dan (5/2 with bet365), who enjoyed a win in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland, is likely to be the biggest test to Excelebration’s hopes of victory.
Racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe believes his charge Frankel (2/9 Qipco Champions Stakes outright with bet365) will have to be on his guard against Cirrus Des Aigles in the Qipco Champions Stakes at Ascot on Saturday.
In a race that could well be the last for the unbeaten great, the talented four-year old is looking to record his 14th consecutive victory this weekend, in what has been a glittering career before being put out to stud.
However, the great runner will have to compete with Cirrus Des Aigles, who has been running at over 10 furlongs for some time, whilst Frankel has only run the distance once at the Juddmonte International at York.
The heavy favourite is still expected to produce another dominant display, however Grimthorpe is wary of the threat posed by Cirrus Des Aigles (4/1 Qipco Champions Stakes outright with bet365) to the Sir Henry Cecil trained Frankel this weekend.
He said: “Cirrus Des Aigles has proved himself after the last two or three years.
“He’s the defending champion and he came out at Longchamp and was very impressive in the Group Two.
“Certainly he’s going to be a horse to be reckoned with.”
Owner Sir Henry Cecil revealed he “could not be happier” with Frankel‘s preparations ahead of the record-breaking horse’s appearance in the Champion Stakes as Ascot on Saturday (Frankel 2/11 fav with bet365 to win the Qipco Champions Stakes).
The four-year-old is unbeaten in 13 career starts and is expected to be retired for breeding after the £1.3million race.
He has been heavily backed to triumph on Saturday and end his career in style, though heavy rain on the Berkshire course may not help his cause.
The ground is already described as soft and with more wet weather expected, the soft ground-loving Cirrus Des Aigles (4/1 with bet365) is expected to be Frankel’s main challenger.
John Gosden’s Nathaniel (10/1) may also be in contention given he is the only horse to have really tested Frankel when beaten by just half a length at Newmarket in 2010.
Master of Hounds (100/1), German Derby winner Pastorius (33/1) and Frankel’s stablemate Bullet Train (150/1) make up the field after Declaration Of War and Ridasiyna withdrew on Thursday.
Speaking after Frankel completed two canters at Newmarket ahead of Saturday’s showdown, Ceil appeared confident about the colt’s chances.
“I could not be happier with him. He seems full of himself,” Cecil said.
Tags: Ascot, bullet train, Champion Stakes, cirrus des aigles, Frankel, horse racing bet, horse racing betting, horse racing odds, John Gosden, master of hounds, Nathaniel, outright betting, pastorius, race betting, sir henry cecil
Horse Racing | Horse Racing Betting News | October 18, 2012 13:08 |
Reckless Abandon (7/4 Win and Each Way with bet365) and Moohaajim will go head-to-head in an interesting battle between two of Britain’s leading juveniles in the Group 1 Vision.ae Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday.
Reckless Abandon came out on top in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville in August before the Marco Botti-trained son of Cape Cross Moohaajim (3/1 Win and Each Way with bet365) won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.
Jockey Gerald Mosse will take the ride on Reckless Abandon after Adam Kirby snubbed the opportunity in order to partner Moohaajim.
Taayel, who finished third behind Moohaajim at Newbury, was not declared for the Middle Park outing this weekend. But respective Gimcrack Stakes and Richmond Stakes winners Blaine and Heavy Metal will contend along with Cristoforo Colombo and Hototo.
The presence of unbeaten Dawn Approach (5/2 Win and Each Way with bet365) appears to have put off competitors entering the Group 1 Dubai Dewhurst Stakes.
In a field of just five, the John Gosden-trained Ashdan, winner of a conditions race at Doncaster’s St Leger festival last month, looks set to be the main test, while stablemate Leitir Mor is set to act as a pacemaker for Dawn Approach.
Trainer Yasutoshi Ikee is confident Orfevre can emerge victorious at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and become the first Japanese horse to do so (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe win and each way (each way 1/4 1-2-3) – Orfevre 8/1 with bet 365).
El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact and Nakayama Festa have all come close in the past, but Ikee believes Orfevre has a great chance of coming out on top.
Orfevre, last year’s Japanese Triple Crown winner, is set for the Prix Foy at Longchamp this Sunday, where he will be partnered by Christophe Soumillon.
Ikee said: “Christophe Soumillon said that the horse had more speed and showed better movement than a week before.
“I am sure that Christophe and Orfevre are getting along well together, it’s his first time at Longchamp but I hope he can handle it in a good manner.”
Jockey Soumillon is also in confident mood and has high hopes for the four-year-old.
Soumillon said: “I have watched his past performances and my impression of him has been even improved after the track work. He is definitely a first-class horse.
“Even though our main objective is to win the Arc three weeks later, I want to win the Prix Foy without making too much effort.”
Triple Group One winner Meandre will provide stiff competition in the Prix Foy, while Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey and Danedream are amongst the contenders for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe win and each way (each way 1/4 1-2-3) – Camelot 11/4f, Danedream 5/1).
Befred Sprint Cup antepost favourite Ortensia (9/4 with bet365) could be set for the Breeder’s Cup in America later this year if she comes through this weekend’s big race without any problems.
The recent winner of the Nunthorpe Stakes at York is expected to be the one to beat at Haydock on Saturday and the Australian star is the short-priced favourite ahead of Bated Breath (10/3), Mayson and Strong Suit (both 7/1) in the early betting.
Ortensia will pass up the opportunity to go for the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day but trainer Paul Messara says the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November is a possibility.
He told Sporting Life: “This will be her last run in Europe, she won’t run again over here. There is a possibility that we will give some consideration to the Breeders’ Cup race.
“But we’ll just have to see how she comes out of this race first.”
Other contenders for Saturday’s Betfred Sprint include Society Rock (10/1) and Hitchens (14/1), while Genki is a lively outsider to some at 40/1 in the antepost odds.
Tags: Bated Breath, Breeders' Cup Turf betting, Genki, Hitchens, horse race odds, horse racing betting, Mayson, Ortensia, Society Rock, Strong Suit
International Racing | Horse Racing Betting News | September 5, 2012 17:23 |
Frankel will face eight rivals in the Juddmonte International on Wednesday as he steps up to 10 furlongs for the first time.
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Nathaniel is the only horse to have been withdrawn at the 48 hour declaration stage, with a view to compete in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes on September 8, leaving Frankel amongst a group of nine for the York Group One.
Frankel has won all of his 12 starts to date but has never been tested beyond a mile, although connections are more than confident four-year-old can handle the extra distance.
The Henry Cecil-trained star, whose last win came in the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, is priced at 1/7 with bet365 to come out on top in the showpiece event on Wednesday, although Frankel will face a challenge in the shape of St Nicholas Abbey.
Aidan O’Brien’s Corontation Cup star is dropping back in trip from a mile and a half and can be backed at 5/1 with bet365 to secure the win at York, while last year’s winner Twice Over is 18/1.
Farhh was second to Frankel in the Sussex Stakes and is 12/1 ahead of Wednesday’s Group One contest with bet365.
Frankel’s stable mate Bullet Train (100/1) Planteur (28/1), Sri Putra (50/1), Windsor Palace (100/1) and Robin Hood (200/1) complete the field.
Joint King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes favourite Nathaniel (5/2 with bet365) is in good shape as he attempts to defend his crown in Saturday’s big race, according to trainer John Gosden.
The Newmarket handler says last year’s winner is ready to run again just a fortnight after he made a successful first appearance of the season when triumphing in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown.
“As of this morning, he’s a runner,” said Gosden. “(Jockey) William Buick breezed him this morning and I think it went really well – William was delighted.”
Nathaniel is hoping to emulate Dahlia, who won back-to-back King George’s in 1973 and 74, and Swain (1997-98) and become just the third horse to record successive victories in the Ascot race.
With the weather set to stay dry ahead of Saturday, Gosden expects the going to favour his charge and he is hoping for another winning weekend for the four-year-old.
“I expect the ground to be on the easy side, not heavy, and I think it would be wimpish not to run,” he added.
Alongside Nathaniel, St Nicholas Abbey is also 5/2 joint favourite in the antepost betting while Sea Moon is next in the market with bet365 at 11/4.
Tags: Coral-Eclipse, Coral-Eclipse odds, horse racing betting, King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes betting, King George's, Nathaniel, Newmarket, racing bets, Sandown, Sea Moon, St Nicholas Abbey, Swain
Horse Racing | Horse Racing Betting News | July 18, 2012 14:10 |
John Gosden says there is still a chance that his horse Nathaniel (5/2 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with be365) will be fit in time to defend his King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes title at Ascot.
The four-year-old looked someway short of his best while winning the Eclipse on Saturday, but the result has still fuelled speculation that he could now defend his Ascot crown.
Gosden had previously said he was unlikely to enter the horse for the King George as the two races were too close together and he didn’t want to risk his charge picking up any unnecessary injures.
However, the experienced trainer is impressed by how Nathaniel (7/1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with bet365) has recovered from last weekend’s triumph and says there’s still a good chance he could be ready to defend at Ascot.
“He’s eaten up and cantered for three days. He’s taken the race very well, so the King George isn’t out of the question,” Gosden said.
“I’m surprised how well he has taken it because he had a long lay off and a tough race, he had to repel a lot of challengers. We’ll see, but the King George would not be out of the question.”
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